Exploring Market Trends in Anti-viral Drugs: Analysis of Size, Share, and Growth 2030
In an era where communicable viral infections continue to pose a significant threat to global public health, the anti-viral drugs market is poised for exceptional growth. Infectious diseases remain a leading cause of human mortality, resulting in substantial healthcare expenditures. The complexity of viral diseases presents lucrative opportunities for the global anti-viral drugs market between 2020 and 2025, according to industry analysts.
Rising Prevalence of Infectious Diseases Drives Market Growth
In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 257 million people worldwide had hepatitis B, and 71 million had hepatitis C, both of which can become chronic. WHO further revealed that in 2016, approximately 399,000 people died primarily from cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma due to chronic viral hepatitis. While anti-viral medicines have shown remarkable effectiveness against hepatitis C, inadequate access to diagnosis and treatment in low-income countries has limited the market’s performance.
The HIV/AIDS epidemic has affected 76 million people globally, with 33 million deaths since its inception. This, coupled with favorable reimbursement policies, has made HIV the highest disease indication in the anti-viral drugs market in 2019.
Annual epidemics of seasonal influenza result in millions of severe illness cases and respiratory deaths. Herpes simplex virus (HSV) infections also affect a substantial portion of the global population. These statistics highlight the continued growth potential of the anti-viral drugs market.
COVID-19 Pandemic Boosts Short-term Growth
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated the demand for anti-viral drugs. With over 33.6 million confirmed cases and 1 million deaths globally as of September 2020, scientists are urgently testing existing anti-viral drugs against the novel coronavirus. Remdesivir has emerged as a prominent candidate due to its similarities to viruses causing previous epidemics. Multiple anti-viral drugs are undergoing fast-tracked clinical trials for COVID-19 treatment, offering hope for effective treatments in the near future.
Leading Companies in the Market
The top 10 companies dominating the anti-viral drugs market include Gilead Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, Sino Biopharmaceutical, Merck & Co, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Aurobindo Pharma, Arbutus Biopharma, and Roche. The market was valued at approximately US$38.9 billion in 2019, with a projected modest growth rate of 1.5% by the end of 2025. Gilead Sciences currently leads the market, holding more than 50% of market share. However, it is expected to experience a slight decline in market share due to increased competition, particularly from Mavyret.
Key Players and Future Trends
Gilead Sciences is expected to offset its market share loss with the introduction of Biktarvy, a novel brand estimated to achieve sales of US$6 billion by 2025. Other top-selling anti-virals by 2025 include Triumeq (GSK), Genvoya (Gilead Sciences + Torii Pharmaceutical), Tivicay (GSK), and Mavyret (AbbVie). These products will collectively account for more than 50% of the anti-viral drugs market in 2025.
The industry also boasts a strong development pipeline with potential blockbuster candidates in early clinical trial phases, including Inarigivir from Spring Bank Pharmaceuticals, Dolutegravir & Lamivudine from GSK, ABI-H0731 from Assembly Biosciences, Cabotegravir & Rilpivirine, and Fostemsavir Tromethamine from GSK.
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